Political Spot

Good evening, from the NTP political centre.

I was lucky enough to understand the end of the Cold War, and feel the relief of Europeans and the coming together of nations who had been separated by ideology for decades. The legal successor to the Soviet Union (which, for a supposed dictatorship, voted itself out of existence) is Russia. Russia failed to come to terms with the demands of the capitalist system, many of it's soldiers were unpaid for months, and there were starving thousands who had worked all of their lives and whose pensions were worthless.

Under the variable Presidency of Boris Yeltsin, Russia dug in for transition to capitalism and braced itself for some further harsh years. To aid liquidity, the nation sold off many of the nationalised industries in a massive privatisation move. This worked wonders, with many of the businesses proving to be hugely profitable, a source of tax revenues for the nation, and drawing tentative investment from the West.

On the eve of the Millennium, Boris Yeltsin handed over power to a virtual unknown, the unassuming short-term Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin. Nothing too serious was mentioned about his KGB past, as the world celebrated 2000.

Fast forward nearly a decade. The men who owned the privatised businesses are now rich beyond the dreams of all but a handful of people. These men are now, in some parts, household names. Roman Abramovich, anyone? The companies that generate the highest profits are those which utilise Russia's abundant natural resources, like Gazprom (gas) and Sibneft (oil). 

Due to resources dwindling elsewhere, and other factors, these resources are suddenly enormously valuable, and Russia holds the keys to energy prices for most of Europe.

If, for example, a nation failed to appreciate an aspect of Russian foreign policy then the Russian government could turn off the gas to that country or increase the price dramatically. In winter, this could bring a shivering nation to it's knees. Which is more or less what what they did to Ukraine in 2007.

During the last year, Putin's tenure as President came to an end, and he moved downstairs to become Prime Minister whilst 'puppet' President Dmitry Medvedev was elected. Spookily, Medvedev used to be on the Board of Directors at Gazprom.

With the rearming and new confidence of the Russian Army, allied to the strategic power balance with the countries that rely on Russian resources, it would take a bold leader (or a suicidal one) that would challenge Russia or Putin to a fight.

And this is where we are today. With Russian troops and navy surrounding and probing inside Georgia, Georgia's biggest ally the United States is reduced to throwing strong-sounding comments instead of bullets.

The United States will never invade Russia, and neither will it provide the more realistic idea of sending fighting troops to support Georgian defences. The chance of accidentally or deliberately firing on Russian troops is too great a mistake to make. And the 'coalition of the willing' are already hugely stretched with our War on Terror.

As diplomacy, calls for withdrawals and ceasefires are sternly put forward by Condoleeza Rice and George W Bush, it is interesting to draw a parallel with the Iraqi invasion of 2003. At no time were the Iraqi Government given the opportunity to come to a table to talk over their differences with the US. And I find it offensive that the US has the gall to chide Russia for "illegal entry into sovereign territory", as American troops still patrol Baghdad.

As Mark Thomas pointed out; Iraq was invaded not because it was strong, it was exactly the opposite, it was because it was weak.

With the United Nations Security Council being made up of five permanent members and five temporary ones, and Russia being one of the permanent members, unanimous decision to censure Russia will never happen.

And this is why we are in the situation where Russian Generals can make claims that even The Sun can't make any more sensational:

Just for contracting themselves with the US's missile defence system, Poland is now under threat of a nuclear strike. Where does this leave Britain, with its American Army bases and Union Jack painted nuclear missiles in Norfolk?

Is this a temporary phase for Russia, or is this the start of a dangerous new period in world history?

Ladies and Gentlemen, giving you the headline story of rest of my life: The New Cold War.